Real Madrid ready to dethrone Barca in La Liga

Soccer Betting Lines

08/27/2010 - Barcelona, Spain (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Real Madrid had an incredible season last year, but still finished three points behind Barcelona in Spain's La Liga.

The nine-time Champions League winner spent nearly $400 million last offseason, but not even the additions of former FIFA World Players of the Year Cristiano Ronaldo and Kaka was enough to unseat Barca.

Real made more moves this offseason to end Barca's two-year title run, but it was the addition of manager Jose Mourinho that was the most important.

Mourinho won the Champions League, Italian Serie A and Coppa Italia last year with Inter Milan, but was lured to the Bernabeu this offseason.

"The Special One" also captured the Champions League with Portugal's FC Porto earlier in his career, and now faces the task of ending Real's La Liga and CL droughts.

Real last won the Champions League in 2002 and has been eliminated in the last 16 each of the last six seasons. The club last won La Liga in 2008, a drought that is only unacceptable in Madrid.

"Winning is the only thing that counts at Real Madrid," Madrid midfielder Xabi Alonso said.

Mourinho allowed veterans Raul, Guti and Christoph Metzelder to leave Madrid, turning to youth with the signings of Angel di Maria, Pedro Leon, Mesut Ozil, Sami Khedira and Sergio Canales.

Those four players cost Real around $85 million, and Argentina's di Maria is a talented 22-year-old who cost nearly half of that amount from Benfica. Khedira and Ozil, who cost a combined $34 million, both emerged for Germany during the recent FIFA World Cup. Leon and Canales are a pair of Spanish U-21 players who are the future of Spain's senior team.

Veteran Ricardo Carvalho, who played under Mourinho at Porto and Chelsea, was also brought in from Chelsea to solidify the defense.

Alonso, who was signed from Liverpool last season, believes Madrid will have a strong team this season, but it could take some time to completely get used to Mourinho.

"The team is still evolving. The internationals rejoined the squad throughout the preseason following the World Cup. The coach needs time for the players to act out his new ideas on the pitch. We have to continue working, but we will improve with time," Alonso said.

Barcelona had more notable departures this summer as Thierry Henry, Yaya Toure and Dmytro Chygrynskiy all left, but Pep Guardiola does have one new toy this season in Spain striker David Villa.

Villa joined Barca from Valencia for more than $50 million, adding another one of the pieces of Spain's World Cup squad to the already impressive club. Barca is also close to signing Argentina defensive midfielder Javier Mascherano, who would strengthen the best club midfield in the world.

Barca held off Real last season by three points, although it suffered just one loss in La Liga. With both teams again the class of La Liga, all that really is yet to be decided is which finishes first and which finishes second.

On Saturday, Hercules hosts Athletic Bilbao, Malaga hosts Valencia and Levante hosts Sevilla as the La Liga season kicks off.

Barca visits Racing and Real Madrid visits Mallorca on Sunday, when Deportivo hosts Real Zaragoza, Espanyol hosts Getafe, Real Sociedad hosts Villarreal and Osasuna hosts Almeria.

Atletico Madrid, which beat Inter Milan in the UEFA Super Cup on Friday, opens against Sporting Gijon on Monday.

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How did changes to college football betting rules affect bettors?

The 2007 college football rules changes that were implemented to shorten games are now history. The NCAA rules committee did what they set out to do; games were cut by an average of 14 minutes per game last season. There were also, on average, 14 fewer plays per game. We’ll get into how that did (or didn’t) affect games in regards to the pointspread a bit later.

While the NCAA rules committee may have had the betterment of the game in mind, they'll now “turn back the clock” for next season. Two key rules have now been overturned by the NCAA committee for the 2007 season, something definitely for the better.

For those of you who may not remember what those rules actually were, let us refresh your memory.

1) The first one was actually starting the clock on a kickoff as soon as the kicker touched the ball rather than waiting until the returner touched it. The problem here was near the end of the half (or game), if the team leading was kicking off, they could milk the clock by intentionally running offsides and then re-kicking. They could run 10-15 seconds off the clock each play while taking just five-yard penalties each time. They could run the clock down and simply cause the half (or game) to end on a kickoff, keeping the opposing offense off the field. In 2007, the clock will now start when the returner touches the ball as it had before last season.

2) The second rule dealt with starting the clock after a change of online football betting possession rather than waiting until the ball was snapped. This took a lot of time off the clock throughout the game as teams changed possession, however it caused the most problems late in games (or halves). Rather than huddling up and calling a play, the offensive team would have to rush onto the field as the clock started. This was a definite disadvantage to a team that was trying to come from behind late in the game. This year the clock will start on a change of possession, after the ball is snapped.

How did those rules affect the college game last year and will it make a difference this year when it comes to the pointspread? We commonly heard two theories when it came to these changes. First, it would affect scoring negatively. Second, it would hurt favorites as they would have less time and fewer plays to cover the number.

Did the rules hurt scoring? Yes. It seemed obvious that shortening the game by what amounted to 14 plays would push scoring downward. That was the case last year. Of the 119 Division 1A teams, 69 squads scored fewer points in 2007 than they did in 2005. Just 48 teams had a higher PPG scoring average and two stayed the same. Almost 59 percent of the teams in college football last year had a lower PPG average than they did in 2005. Expect more scoring in 2007 as we revert back to the old rules.

Did the rules hinder favorites from covering the number in 2007? Not really. Last year the favorites posted an overall spread record of 336-350-16 (48.9 percent). The year before, favorites were 316-326-13 (49.2 percent). In 2004, the favorites were 316-339-2 (48.2 percent). In fact, college football favorites have been above 50 percent for the season just once in the last seven years (in 2003). Last year’s numbers fell right in line with where they have been historically.

How about big favorites? The rules must have hurt them? Maybe a little bit. Double-digit favorites last year came in at a 47.8 percent clip compare with an average of just over 50 percent over the last seven years. Since 1980, favorites of -10 or more have covered at exactly a 50 percent clip (measured over 6,716 games).

Even bigger favorites must have struggled? Not really. In fact, it was just the opposite. Favorites of three TD’s or more were 59-54-2 last year (52.2 percent). Since 2000, those same favorites (-21 or higher) hit at 51.3 percent and since 1990 came in a clip of 50.3 percent. Stepping it up a notch to four TD favorites or higher, we actually see they've covered at a much better rate last season than before. Last year, favorites of -28 or more were 31-21-1, or almost 60 percent. Historically, four-TD-or-higher favorites have come in at a 50.7 percent spot since 2000 and only 48.9 percent since 1990. The “perceived” problem with the favorites covering at a reduced rate really never came to fruition.

Bottom line is, there might be some more scoring in 2007, but no real revelations when it comes to finding any pointspread golden nuggets.

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