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01/28/2012 - USAFA, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Closing in on the 20-win plateau, the 12th-ranked UNLV Runnin' Rebels take their act on the road tonight as they clash with the Air Force Falcons in Mountain West Conference action at Clune Arena.
Since losing to San Diego State by just two points in the conference opener two weeks ago, the Rebels have rattled off three straight victories in league action. The first two were quite easy as the team topped TCU and New Mexico by a combined 40 points, but on Wednesday night the Rebels were brought back to reality. Suited up against the newest addition to the MWC, Boise State, the Rebels found themselves having to go to overtime on the road, but in the end they still squeezed out the 77-72 victory at Taco Bell Arena.
As for the Falcons, they actually took care of the Broncos in their conference opener rather routinely (74-59), but since then the program has dropped three in a row and all against MWC foes. Most recently, it was TCU that got the better of Air Force three nights ago in a 59-56 final at Daniel-Meyer Coliseum in Fort Worth.
With respect to the all-time series between these two schools on the hardwood, the Rebels hold a commanding 26-8 advantage, winning the most recent game during the quarterfinals of the MWC Tournament in Las Vegas last season, 69-53. The Falcons have played well at home over the years, posting a 7-9 mark in the series, but heading into tonight's clash the Rebels have reeled off eight straight wins over The Academy.
UNLV led by as many as nine points in the second half against the Broncos on Wednesday night, but still the team was forced to go to overtime but thankfully the Rebels scored the first points of the bonus frame and never trailed, en route to the five-point triumph. Mike Moser had yet another incredible effort for UNLV as he led the team in both scoring and rebounding with 18 points and a staggering 21 boards, his 11th double-double of the campaign. Chace Stanback and Oscar Bellfield contributed with 15 and 13 points, respectively, the latter handing out six assists as well. Moser has been an absolute beast in the paint for the Rebels with his 11.7 rpg, one of the highest averages in college basketball, his 14.2 ppg trailing only Stanback who is producing 14.7 ppg on the strength of his 47.9 percent accuracy behind the three-point line. Anthony Marshall (12.0 ppg) can not only score the ball he can also get it to teammates in key scoring situations, resulting in 103 assists which is actually second on the roster to Bellfield (9.1 ppg) who has dished out 114 over 22 games.
The Falcons were held silent for the final 4:05 of the second half on Wednesday night as they suffered the three-point loss to TCU on the road. Taylor Broekhuis tried to keep hope alive with his 15 points and seven rebounds, while Mike Fitzgerald and Todd Fletcher chipped in 14 and 12 points, respectively, but the team managed just seven points off the bench and a mere four offensive rebounds in the meeting. Despite being held to minimal production yet again, Michael Lyons is still the leading scorer for the Falcons with his 13.8 ppg, his 4.7 rpg also one of the top marks for a program that is notoriously weak on the glass. Fitzgerald is responsible for another 11.3 ppg, but between he and Lyons there's just 29 assists and 63 turnovers, a ration that is far from successful at any level. Nevertheless, the Falcons give themselves a fighting chance thanks to a defense that is one of the best in the nation with holding foes to just 57.3 ppg.
<< Colorado State entertains No. 13 San Diego State
Fort Collins, CO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The last of the unbeatens in the Mountain
West Conference, the 13th-ranked San Diego State Aztecs hit the road this
afternoon to challenge the Colorado State Rams at Moby Arena in Fort Collins.
Not only ar
<< Panthers hope to make it two in a row in clash with Hoyas
Pittsburgh, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off their first win in more than
month, the Pittsburgh Panthers will try to make it two in row as they play
host to the ninth-ranked Georgetown Hoyas in a Big East Conference bout this
afternoon at the P
<< Sooners set sights on Wildcats in Big 12 affair
Manhattan, KS (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Oklahoma Sooners will play their second
straight ranked opponent, as they invade Manhattan this afternoon for a Big 12
showdown with the 22nd-ranked Kansas State Wildcats.
Lon Kruger's Sooners are in the
<< Top-25 foes collide in SEC showdown
Gainesville, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - A top-25 matchup is on tap in the SEC, as
the 14th-ranked Florida Gators welcome the 18th-ranked Mississippi State
Bulldogs to Gainesville.
Billy Donovan's Gators enter this contest with a four-game win str
Blue Devils and Red Storm collide in Durham >>
Durham, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - For the 14th straight season, the Duke Blue
Devils and St. John's Red Storm will take time out of their conference slates
to meet on the hardwood.
The eighth-ranked Blue Devils are 5-1 in ACC play this season. T
Sixth-ranked Bears welcome Longhorns to Waco >>
Waco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The sixth-ranked Baylor Bears continue their quest
towards the top spot in the Big 12, as they welcome the Texas Longhorns to
Waco for a conference showdown at the Ferrell Center.
Scott Drew's Bears are 5-2 in-con
No.2 Tigers tangle with Red Raiders >>
Columbia, MO (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The second-ranked Missouri Tigers set their
sights on getting back on track, as they welcome the Texas Tech Red Raiders to
Columbia this afternoon, for a Big 12 matchup at Mizzou Arena.
Frank Haith's Tigers ar
Cavs and Pack square off Raleigh >>
Raleigh, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Two teams continuing to jockey for position
within the ACC meet in Raleigh tonight, as the 19th-ranked Virginia Cavaliers
take on the NC State Wolfpack.
Virginia is an impressive 16-3 this season, but the team
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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Sports Betting News: NFL Team History | NFL Football Betting | College Football Betting | Baseball Betting | Basketball Betting | College Basketball Betting | Hockey Betting | Golf Betting | Tennis Betting | Auto Racing Betting | Horse Racing Betting | Soccer Betting