07/03/2009 - Columbus, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - D.C. United coach Tom Soehn was excited to have last weekend off in MLS and thinks the Eastern Conference leaders are refreshed for Saturday's trip to the Columbus Crew, even though they continued defense of their U.S. Open Cup title Tuesday.
United lost for just the second time in its last 12 games in its last MLS game, 3-0 at the Colorado Rapids, and used the off week to rest and defeated the PDL Ocean City Barons City 2-0 on Tuesday.
"We need a break right now," Soehn said after the loss to Colorado. "That's the point we're at. We need to get some guys rest, and we're going to use that time to get everybody where they need to be."
Soehn didn't use his top squad for the U.S. Open Cup match, which will be key this weekend with veteran Jaime Moreno out, Luciano Emilio questionable, Fred probable, and Dejan Jakovic (Canada) and Santino Quaranta (U.S.) playing in the Gold Cup.
D.C. (5-3-8) has just one win away from RFK Stadium but is 1-3-4 overall on the road. United will try to maintain its lead in the Eastern Conference at Crew Stadium, where Columbus (5-3-7) is unbeaten in seven matches this season.
The Crew are one of four unbeaten teams at home - United, Houston and Colorado are the others - and can overtake United for the top spot this weekend with a win.
Columbus is also hurt by the Gold Cup, with Chad Marshall - who scored the lone goal in its 1-0 win over Red Bull New York last week - and Robbie Rogers absent to play for the United States.
In addition, Adam Moffat is out through injury, but luckily the Crew welcomed back right back Frankie Hejduk and goalie Will Hesmer last weekend. Midfielder Emmanuel Ekpo was rested last week also, so he should be fresh.
Hejduk was playing for the first time in six games and for just the fourth time all season because of injuries and U.S. national team duty.
"It's tough always getting back into the swing of things," Hejduk said. "You have to pace yourself, I'm still trying to get my fitness back and I think I'm about 90 percent."
Hesmer made his first appearance in 10 games and posted the Crew's second clean sheet in four matches.
Columbus also played mid-week, and was eliminated from the U.S. Open Cup with a penalty-kick loss to the Rochester Rhinos. The Crew are on a roll in MLS though and despite the close scoreline against struggling New York, have just one loss in their last 11 MLS games.
"I think [New York] came to Columbus to get a point. We created a couple of chances especially with our set pieces," Columbus coach Robert Warzycha said. "Basically in the end of the first half we got a goal which was huge for us. In the second half we created a few chances and I have to say in the end of the game I wasn't worried too much."
<< Turkoglu to join Blazers
Portland, OR (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Sharp-shooting forward Hedo Turkoglu is
leaving Orlando for the Great Northwest, reportedly coming to terms on a five-
year, $50 million contract with the Portland Trail Blazers.
The Oregonian newspap
<< Reds activate 3B Encarnacion from DL
Cincinnati, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cincinnati third baseman Edwin Encarnacion
was activated from the 60-day disabled list prior to Friday's game against the
St. Louis Cardinals.
Encarnacion had been on the DL since late April due to a chip
<< New York hopes to snap losing skid at Dallas
Frisco, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Red Bull New York ends a tough seven-match streak
Saturday night at FC Dallas, hoping to snap a nine-game winless skid and a road
losing stretch that dates back to last season.
New York (2-12-4) contests its six
<< Sturridge secures Chelsea switch
London, England (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Highly-rated Manchester City striker Daniel
Sturridge has completed his transfer to FA Cup winners Chelsea.
The 19-year-old, who has penned a four-year contract at Stamford Bridge, will
join up the rest
Bases-loaded walk sends Cubs over Brewers in 10 innings >>
Chicago, IL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Jake Fox drew a bases loaded walk, scoring
Ryan Theriot in the bottom of the 10th inning, as the Chicago Cubs edged the
Milwaukee Brewers, 2-1, in the second of a four-game set at Wrigley Field.
Theriot
Woods shoots 66 to lead AT&T National >>
Bethesda, MD (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Tiger Woods nourished his momentum with a
handful of scrambling par saves, shooting a four-under 66 on Friday to take
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Woods finished two trips around Con
Ramirez apologizes on night of return to Dodgers >>
San Diego, CA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Los Angeles Dodgers left fielder Manny
Ramirez spoke to the media Friday, prior to making his scheduled return to the
majors following his 50-game suspension.
Ramirez is expected to be in the starting
Bowyer captures pole for Daytona Nationwide race >>
Daytona Beach, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After a lengthy rain delay, Clint Bowyer
won the pole for Friday's Subway Jalapeno 250 Nationwide Series race at
Daytona International Speedway.
Bowyer, the 2008 Nationwide champion, lapped the
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
To visit this internet sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your sports betting needs and World Series odds.
Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.
He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.
"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.
He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.
Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.
Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.
Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.
Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.
With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.
Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).
And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)
The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.
While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.
Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.
One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.
Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.
What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.
That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.
MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.
"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.
"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."
So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.
In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.
MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.
The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.
Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.
MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
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