12/03/2008 - Boston, MA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Rajon Rondo finished with 17 assists, 16 points and 13 rebounds, as the Boston Celtics beat the Indiana Pacers, 114-96, for their 10th consecutive win.
Rondo's triple-double was the Celtics' first since Ryan Gomes did it on November 8, 2006 against Charlotte -- a span of 181 games. Gomes was part of the package Boston sent to Minnesota in exchange for Kevin Garnett, who finished with 26 points and 14 boards on Wednesday.
Ray Allen had a game-high 31 points for the Celtics, who avenged one of two losses this season. Indiana beat Boston, 95-79, in the Celtics' third game of the season.
Kendrick Perkins and Paul Pierce finished with 16 points apiece for Boston.
Danny Granger had 20 points and five assists to pace Indiana, which has dropped three of four. The Pacers were coming off a one-point win over the Lakers on Tuesday and are in the midst of a brutal four-game stretch that sees them visit Cleveland (15-3) on Friday before returning home to play Boston again.
The Celtics trailed slightly in the first quarter, but ended the stanza with seven points -- baskets from Rondo and Perkins, and a three from Allen -- to take a 28-27 lead headed into the second.
Boston trailed by four almost midway through the second quarter before going on a 12-0 run. Garnett had six points, and Perkins' layup ended the stretch to give the Celtics a 48-40 advantage.
Boston held the lead going into halftime, 57-51, and dominated the third quarter to take control of the game.
Shortly into the third, Perkins deposited a hook shot and followed with a pair of free throws. Garnett then had a jumper, and Allen's basket capped the brief eight-point burst that boosted Boston's lead to 70-55.
After a jumper from the Pacers' Rasho Nesterovic, Boston rattled off the next six points to go up 76-57. Boston led 88-73 going into the fourth and cruised the rest of the way.
Game Notes
Gomes had 17 assists, 16 points and 11 boards in his triple-double with Boston...Perkins grabbed 10 rebounds...Boston's bench finished with nine total points...Troy Murphy had 10 points and 10 boards for Indiana, while T.J. Ford ended with 15 points and eight assists. Marquis Daniels had 14 for the Pacers...Boston outrebounded Indiana 54-31, while shooting 50 percent from the field...Indiana shot 44 percent from the floor.
<< Quinn undergoes successful surgery on finger
Berea, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Cleveland Browns quarterback Brady Quinn
underwent successful surgery on Wednesday to repair his broken right index
finger, an injury he sustained in a November 17 game against Buffalo.
Quinn broke
<< Cavs go to 10-0 at home with rout of Knicks
Cleveland, OH (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - LeBron James scored 21 points, dished out six
assists, grabbed five rebounds and had five steals to lead Cleveland in a
118-82 rout of New York, as the Cavaliers won their 10th in a row at home to
set a f
<< Heatley leads the way as Sens drop Thrashers
Ottawa, ON (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dany Heatley registered a goal and two assists,
as the Ottawa Senators pounded the Atlanta Thrashers, 5-1, at Scotiabank
Place.
Daniel Alfredsson and Brendan Bell both had a goal and an assist for t
<< Howard leads Magic past T-Wolves
Orlando, FL (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Dwight Howard finished with 23 points, 14
rebounds and blocked six shots to help the Orlando Magic to a 100-89 victory
over the Minnesota Timberwolves.
Rashard Lewis also scored 23 points, while Hed
Backstrom, power play fuel Wild win over Blues >>
St. Paul, MN (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Coming off a career-worst performance in his
last outing, Niklas Backstrom turned aside all 22 shots he faced to record his
third shutout of the season, as the Minnesota Wild blanked the St. Louis
Blues,
Smith returns for Hawks >>
Atlanta, GA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Atlanta Hawks forward Josh Smith, who had
missed the previous 12 games due to a high left ankle sprain, returned to
action by starting Wednesday's 105-95 win against Memphis.
Smith played just 11 min
No. 15 Wake Forest routs Indiana >>
Winston-Salem, NC (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - James Johnson scored 21 points and
grabbed five rebounds, leading the 15th-ranked Wake Forest Demon Deacons to an
83-58 victory over the Indiana Hoosiers in the ACC/Big Ten Challenge.
Johnson shot
Ming fuels Rockets past Clippers >>
Houston, TX (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Yao Ming scored 24 points and grabbed 10
rebounds, leading the Houston Rockets to a 103-96 victory over the Los Angeles
Clippers at Toyota Center.
Rafer Alston added 21 points, seven assists and ei
There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.
These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.
Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.
Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.
Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.
Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.
The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?
To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.
Home vs. Away Teams
Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.
Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.
Price ranges
Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.
The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.
Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.
Playoff teams
It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.
Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.
This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.
Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.
Scoring defense and scoring offense
Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.
Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.
There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.
The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.
Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.
Scoring margin
An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.
In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.
Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.
In sum
Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.
The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.
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